Folklore weather predicting

Every February 2, otherwise sober-minded officials of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania (population: 6,700) proceed with great pomp and pageantry to the town’s Groundhog Zoo to coax their star boarder, “Punxsutawney Phil” out of his burrow. All winter long the celebrated groundhog has been in blissful hibernation with his wife, Phyllis, and any little ones that might have come along in the meantime. But in mid-winter, the eyes of the world are on the sleepy rodent as he pokes his head into the upperworld. If it’s a cloudy day and he does not see his shadow, it will be an early spring. If he sees the shadow, spring will be six weeks away. The folks in Punxsutawney have been going through this ritual since 1886 and the town had garnered both notoriety and profit from its most famous citizen -- over $150,000 worth of groundhog souvenirs are sold annually.

The notion that a groundhog (or woodchuck) can predict the weather is not exclusive to Punxsutawney, or even the groundhog for that matter. In Europe, for instance, prognostication of an early or late spring is often assigned to the bear and the badger. But, The Nation Weather Service is quick to point out, in either event, weather prediction by animals has no basis of scientific fact and should be regulated to the realm of folklore.

-- Cats scratch a post before a wind, wash their faces before a rain, and sit with their back toward the fire before a snow.

-- If a rooster crows at night, there will be rain by morning.

-- Pigs gather leaves and straw before a storm.

-- If cows lie down and refuse to go to pasture, you can expect a storm to blow up soon.

-- If a dog starts to whine for no reason, you can expect a major storm -- possibly a tornado.

-- Birds on a telephone wire predict the coming of rain.

-- The darker the woolly bear’s (warm) coat, the more severe the winter will be. If there is a dark stripe at the head and one at the end, the winter will be severe at the beginning, become mild, then get worse just before spring.

-- When dogs eat grass, you can expect a severe storm.

Other than farmers, ships at sea were most affected by the weather. And since animals (except rats and the legendary pirate’s parrot) were rare on ships, sailors used current weather conditions, the position of the moon, as well as the behavior of sea life, to determine whether they should batten down the hatches.

-- If porpoises frolic at sea, expect a storm.

-- Red sky at morning, sailor take warning; red sky at night, a sailor’s delight.

-- A falling meteor predicts fair weather.

-- The appearance of gulls overhead does not mean rain, but fair skies instead.

-- If rain falls while the sun shines, then the shower will last half an hour.

-- If rats in the hold climb out on deck, it will be a fair day.

-- If the sail no longer catches the wind, then expect a violent storm to blow up in just a few hours.

-- If a quarter moon lies on his back, it is holding the rain. However, if it tips over, grab your slicker.

-- If salt pork turns sour, then be ready for a shower.

-- Blue sky in the northwest foretells fair weather and a good breeze.

-- If the moon rises red and appears very large, then rain is only a half day away.

Other than groundhogs, badgers and bears, other wildlife -- especially insects and bugs -- can be depended upon to predict the coming weather conditions. In Britain, for instance, loud singing crickets predict the coming of violent storms. If spiders weave their webs before noon, then it will be fair weather. Ants are supposed to be busier before a storm, as are cockroaches.

-- Locusts sing when the air is hot and dry.

-- When toads appear in large numbers, you can expect rain.

-- If bears and horses get thick coats early, then expect a severe winter.

-- Squirrels are busier gathering nuts before a bad winter.

-- If wasps build their nests high, a severe winter is on its way.

Even the weather itself, can be used to predict future conditions. For instance, for every fog in August, there will be a snowfall in winter. Furthermore, a hot summer precedes a cold winter.

-- The first frost of autumn will occur exactly six months after the first thunderstorm in the spring.

-- If the autumn is windy, then expect a mild winter.

-- If the spring in windy, expect a cool summer.

-- If it is a dry spring, it will be a wet summer.

-- A mild winter precedes a cool spring.

Some weather indicators are just plain obvious (and obviously told with tongue planted firmly in the cheek). For instance, if you look out your window and your dogs are running around and ducking, then a hailstorm is in progress. Furthermore, if water is dripping from your windowsill, you can be pretty sure that it’s raining outside.

There are, of course, hundreds of other ways our ancestors tried to predict the weather. And, at times, they were pretty accurate. The law of averages had to catch up with even the wildest of guesses.

In the middle of the nineteenth century the editor of The Old Farmer's Almanac -- a traditional source for long range forecasts -- discovered that they had forgotten to include the weather for a certain day in late June. “Just put anything in there,” the publisher told him. So the editor wrote that, on this particular day, that is was not only going to be fair, but it was also going to rain, snow and sleet. And, as it turned out, the forecast was 100 percent accurate.

Needless to say, after that amazing prediction was proven accurate, the almanac’s subscriptions tripled.